The Indian pharma sector is expected to be one of the fastest growing sector, thanks to efforts by the Indian government for introducing PLI scheme. According to IMS Health, the global medicine market is expected grow at CAGR 3-6% through 2026, and Indian Pharma market is expected to grow at 9-10% CAGR. This brings my interest to invest in the Pharma sector sector stocks as well. I have studied the following stocks over the past few weeks:
Alkem Laboratories: This is my most favourite company out of all, with most promising plans to grow in next couple of years. It has exposure to both US and Indian market. However, its revenue from US market has dropped recently with increase from domestic and rest of the global market. I am particularly bullish about the growing Indian pharma market due to aging Indian population and bettering lifestyle of the Indian middle class. Some of the company's medicines like Pan D and A to Z are popular ones being recommended by most Indian doctors (even I have often heard of them!).
The company's debt is moderate (25% of its total assets) and seems justified by its growth. However, when it comes to investing in the stock, I look at the pricing as well. With the current share price trading 56% above my expected intrinsic value of Rs. 2051, I am not interested in buying this stock right now.
2. IPCA Laboratories: This company could not impress me. Starting with its annual report, it is pretty boring - not something they really cared to put extra efforts in. Not that is really affects the performance of company, it does show the laid-back attitude of the management. It has low debt compared to Alkem (11% as against 25%) but its high profit shootup in recent years was due to a particular drug used to in Covid, which does not seem to see those days again.
As per my estimates, the intrinsic value of the stock is Rs.809, which the stock is already trading close to. It is not a buy for me.
3. Divi's Laboratories: Now this is the stock that impresses me. Starting with the fact that company is named after its founder Mr. Murali K. Divi, who is also currently the MD of the company, I believe that the top management does have a lot of incentive to work on company's growth. The promoter holding of the stock is ~52%.
The company is debt-free and has increasing profit Y-o-Y.
Although I mentioned that I believe in Indian market growth, and this company has only 10% revenue from there, 90% being from US and Europe, I can still believe in the company's aim to increase Indian market exposure (due to top global connections of the management) while taking export benefit due to weakening Indian rupee.
Based on the numbers released, I believe that the intrinsic value of the company is Rs.4523, with stock trading 21% below the price. However to reduce my risk-reward ratio further, using the technical indicators, I will consider buying the stock at around Rs. 3500.
4. Aurobindo Pharma: It's a stock that I had purchased last year in hopes to swing trade. However now that I have studied it in detail, I am mostly indifferent towards the stock.
With quite a few legal cases and investigations against the company in US, it is straight out of my list. The company receives maximum revenue from exports, mostly US, where it already faces competition from companies mentioned above. Recently it has opened a production unit in China to reduce the cost of 55% raw material that it imports, to avoid the supply-chain disruptions, and to capture the large Chinese medicine market. Although the company is also debt-free, I am not very sure how bright the future of an Indian company will be in China.
Comments